Vision

The Vision state consists of the original conception of the project. Someone in the company is championing a novel product or service. The decision process may have many strategic and tactical factors. Typically, the final decision is made by the CEO and his senior advisors, but often what is important is how the conception evolves before it reaches the CEO's desk. Concerns include:

• How will pursuing the project advance our corporate goals?
• What is the value proposition?
• What resources will the project require?
• What are the risks of pursuing the project?
• What is the competitive landscape?

In our model, there is a 0.3 probability each quarter that a project will move from the Vision state to the Design state. There is a 0.7 probability that the project will remain in the Vision state. In other words, during a typical quarter, less than a third of project ideas will move forward. Our model does not reflect a possibility that a project may be permanently abandoned in the Vision stage. Instead, any project may be brought back on the table for consideration at a later date.

If the Coupling From The Past algorithm results in the Vision state, this means that the Vision state always occurred at time t=0, regardless of what states occurred at any time in the past.